Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Probability and Success rate

Just some food for thought. If a trading system has to be successful, it has to atleast have a success rate for 70-75%. So for wave 3 trading system to deliver a fortune, in a month approx. there need to be 100 trades and 75 out of the 100 trades should be gainers.
For this month, i have 4 out of 11 trades which are gainers , so doing the math gives me 71 gainers and only 18 losers left. Also, given the fact that i play with a risk of Rs.600, if 75% success rate gets delivered I will be playing with Rs.60,000 (100 x Rs.600) and my gainers would be Rs. 45,000 (75 x Rs.600) and losers would be Rs.15,000 (25 x Rs.600). So net profit in a month would be Rs.30,000.

That is my monthly target.

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